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本文分析第六次耦合模式相互比较计划(Coupled model intercomparison project phase 6,CMIP6)的未来预估试验数据发现，在温室气体高排放(SSP5-8.5)情景下，未来东太平洋上层海洋的“类厄尔尼诺”型增暖呈现加速趋势。这种加速变暖的趋势主要是因为副热带环流圈加速减弱导致沃克环流加速减弱，进而削弱东风，抑制赤道上升流，导致东太平洋上层海洋热含量加速上升。风-蒸发-海表面温度反馈机制虽然也是形成“类厄尔尼诺”型增暖的空间结构的主要驱动机制之一，但对这种空间结构的加速增暖贡献相对较小。研究结果表明，在强排放情景下，热带东太平洋的动力学响应会形成正反馈加速放大变暖效应。
Abstract：By analyzing the simulation data of coupled model intercomparison project phase 6(CMIP6), it is found that under high-emissions scenario(SSP5-8.5), the “El Niňo like” warming of the upper ocean in the eastern Pacific will accelerate in the future. This accelerated warming trend is mainly due to the accelerated weakening of the Walker circulation caused by the accelerated slowing down of the subtropical circulation, which weakens the easterly wind and inhibits the equatorial upwelling, resulting in the accelerated rise of the upper ocean heat content in the eastern Pacific. Although the wind-evaporation-sea surface temperature feedback mechanism is also one of the main driving mechanisms for the formation of the “El Niňo like” warming spatial structure, its contribution to the accelerated warming of this spatial structure is relatively small. The results show that the dynamic response of the tropical East Pacific will form a positive feedback acceleration amplification warming effect under the strong emission scenario.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.16441/j.cnki.hdxb.20250124
中图分类号:P732
引用信息:
[1]牟桂勋,陈显尧.未来热带太平洋类厄尔尼诺型增暖加速的机制分析[J].中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版),2026,56(05):24-31.DOI:10.16441/j.cnki.hdxb.20250124.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金项目(42394130)资助~~
2025-04-08
2025
2025-04-25
2025-04-28
2025
1
2026-04-27
2026-04-27