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优化渔业监测方案,利用有限调查成本获取可靠的渔业数据,对于海洋捕捞产量抽样调查、掌握渔业资源动态变化具有重要意义。本文根据2017年山东省海洋捕捞渔业信息船的渔捞日志数据,以8种重要渔业物种为目标物种,将这些物种的单位渔船年捕捞产量和单位渔船年总捕捞产量的估计值为渔业生产监测目标,进行计算机模拟,以相对估计误差(REE)、相对偏差(RB)作为评价指标,研究了渔业生产监测信息船数量对渔业生产监测目标估计的影响。研究表明,对于各物种的单位渔船年捕捞产量,估计值的相对估计误差和相对偏差的绝对值均随着渔业信息船数的减少不断增大,渔业信息船数少于130时,各指标的变化幅度较大。当渔业信息船数量由210减少至130时,即渔业信息船数降低近38%,所选指标的REE值增加约8%,RB绝对值平均增加0.17%。研究结果表明,海洋捕捞产量抽样调查的渔业信息船数在保证监测目标估计值一定准确度、精确度的情况下可进行优化,130可视为2017年山东海洋捕捞生产监测可接受的最优渔业信息船的数量。
Abstract：Fishery-dependent surveys are essential for collecting data to support stock assessment and fishery management. The optimization of fisheries monitoring program to obtain reliable fishery data with limited costs is of great significance for sampling survey of marine fisheries catch statistics and understanding the dynamics of fish stocks. The objective of fisheries sampling survey was to estimate the annual catch per vessel for eight commercially important species such as small yellow croaker Larimichthys polyactis and the total annual catch per vessel in the fisheries monitoring program of Shandong Province in 2017. The effect of the number of study fleets on the estimates of fisheries catch was examine based on the logbook data of commercial study fleets. The relative estimation error(REE) and relative bias(RB) were used as evaluation indices to measure the performances(accuracy and precision) of different sample size for the fisheries monitoring program. The results showed that the REE values and absolute values of RB of the estimates of objective indices increased with the decrease of the number of study fleets in the survey. When the sample size was less than 130, the REE for each index increased dramatically with the sample size decreasing. When the number of study fleet decreased from 210 to 130, REE increased by about 8%, the absolute value of RB increased by 0.17% in average, and the number of study fleets decreased by nearly 38%. Therefore, the sampling effort in fisheries monitoring program can be optimized while ensuring the accuracy and precision of the estimates of target indices, and 130 can be regarded as the optimal number of study fleets acceptable for marine fisheries monitoring for Shandong Province.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.16441/j.cnki.hdxb.20190116
中图分类号:S932
引用信息:
[1]马亚宸,徐宾铎,王晶,等.渔业信息船数对海洋捕捞产量估计的影响[J],2020,50(S1):71-77.DOI:10.16441/j.cnki.hdxb.20190116.
基金信息:
山东省支持青岛海洋科学与技术试点国家实验室重大科技专项项目(2018SDKJ0501-2);; 国家自然科学基金项目(31802301);; 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(201562030)资助~~