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捕捞压力和气候变化是影响渔业资源数量变动的主要因素,会对渔获量产生较大影响。本文通过分析长时间序列的渔业统计资料和气候变化数据,研究了1962—2012年间捕捞压力和气候变化对黄渤海小黄鱼(Pseudosciaena polyactis)渔获量的影响,并应用Fox模型拟合捕捞压力对黄渤海小黄鱼渔获量的影响,同时根据多个气候因子及气候指数的年间变动数据,分析每个显著相关的气候变量对黄渤海小黄鱼渔获量的影响。研究表明,黄渤海小黄鱼渔获量在1962—1971年呈波动下降趋势,在1972—1990年保持平稳状态,在1991—2012年急剧增加。黄渤海小黄鱼渔获量与渤海冬季季风、北太平洋指数(North pacific index,NPI)呈显著负相关(P<0.05),与黄海夏季季风、黄海海表温度呈显著正相关(P<0.05)。加入气候变量进行优化的Fox模型考虑了捕捞压力和气候变化的影响,该模型拟合的渔获量与统计的渔获量呈极显著相关(P<0.01)。研究表明:捕捞压力的增大是导致黄渤海小黄鱼渔获量变动的主要原因,气候变化也会对小黄鱼渔获量产生显著影响。
Abstract：The influence of fishing pressure and climate change on the catch of small yellow croaker from Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea was studied according to the data collected from 1962 to 2012.We used the Fox surplus production model to fit the influence.The partial correlation between the variation of small yellow croaker catch and the climatic variables wasdetermined using a multivariate linear regression equation according to the inter-annual variation of multiple climatic factors and climatic indexes.We found that small yellow croaker catch from Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea was relatively stable from 1962to1989,but soared from 1990 to 2010.After removing variation trend of catch caused by increasing fishing pressure,the variation of catch was significantly partial correlated with sea surface temperature and summer monsoon in Yellow Sea(P<0.05),while negatively partial correlated with North Pacific Index and winter monsoon in Bohai Sea(P<0.05).The Fox model was optimized by considering the influence of climatic factors.The catch of small yellow croaker fitted by fishing effort and climatic variables was significantly correlated to the actual small yellow croaker catch from Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea(R=0.90,P<0.01),which indicated that variation of small yellow croaker catch was affected by fishing pressure and climate change.According to the future scenario of climate,small yellow croaker catch will experience greater fluctuation in future.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.16441/j.cnki.hdxb.20160263
中图分类号:S931
引用信息:
[1]刘笑笑,王晶,徐宾铎,等.捕捞压力和气候变化对黄渤海小黄鱼渔获量的影响[J],2017,47(08):58-64.DOI:10.16441/j.cnki.hdxb.20160263.
基金信息:
青岛海洋科学与技术国家实验室鳌山科技创新计划项目(2015ASKJ02);; 高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20120132130001);; 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(201262004,201562030)资助~~
2016-07-21
2016
2017-05-04
2017
2016-12-10
1