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针对青岛市水资源本地供给的特点,本文将统计模型法与机理模型法有机结合,基于区域水资源水量平衡原理,构建基于GIS的青岛市本地水资源供给预估方法,并设置不同的自然补给情景,对未来青岛市本地水资源的供给及其空间异质性进行有效预估及分析。结果显示,气候变化背景下青岛市本地水资源供给将持续出现供给短缺且不均衡分布的特点;三种不同情景下青岛市整体本地水资源供给量呈减少趋势,即使偏丰状态情景下也存在不同程度的减少,且空间分布差异性明显;综合三种不同情景下青岛市各行政单元的本地水资源平均预估量(万m3),呈现西海岸新区(37 974.8)>平度市(21 133.2)>莱西市(11 747.1)>胶州市(11 496.0)>崂山区(11 301.6)>即墨区(7 789.6)>城阳区(3 972.7)>市内三区(3 682.0)的空间分布特征。因此在今后的水资源调配过程中,不仅要关注需求量,同时也要关注气候变化影响下本地水资源供给的空间差异性,特别是供需短缺严峻的区域,以达到将水资源配置与适应气候变化工作有机结合的目的。
Abstract：According to the characteristics of local water supply in Qingdao,this paper combined the statistical model with the mechanism model,constructed the prediction method of local water supply based on GIS with the principle of regional water resources balance. Then paper seted up different natural supply scenarios to predict the local water supply and their spatial heterogeneity in the future effectively. The results showed that under the background of climate change,the local water supply in Qingdao will continue to be shortage and more imbalanced. Under the three different scenarios,the decreasing trend and spatial distribution of water supply are obvious in Qingdao,even in the case of therich scenario,there were different degrees of reduction and obvious spatial distribution difference.According to the three different scenarios,the average local water supply of each administrative unit in Qingdao(10 000 cubic meters),showing the spatial distribution characteristics as West Coast New Area(37 974.8)> Pingdu(21 133.2)> Laixi(11 747.1)> Jiaozhou(11 496.0)> Laoshan(11 301.6)> Jimo(7 789.6)> Chengyang(3 972.7)> three districts of Qingdao(3 682.0).Therefore,in the process of water allocation in the future,we must not only focus on the demand,but also pay attention to the differences of local water supply′ spatial distribution under the influences of climate change,especially in regions with severe supply and demand shortage.So as to achieve the purpose of the organic combination of water resources allocation and the adaptation to climate change.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.16441/j.cnki.hdxb.20200017
中图分类号:P467;TV213.4
引用信息:
[1]李小桐,于格,郑谕莹.气候变化背景下青岛本地水资源供给预估方法构建及空间分析[J],2020,50(11):87-95.DOI:10.16441/j.cnki.hdxb.20200017.
基金信息:
瑞士发展合作署资助国际合作项目(INTASAVE ACCC-045);; 青岛市科技咨询项目(20180239)资助~~
2020-01-19
2020
2020-03-21
2020-03-28
2020
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