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本文旨在反演长时间尺度上的全球次表层海洋热浪(Marine heatwaves, MHW),以在更长时间尺度上把握其变化趋势。本文通过初步数据分析发现次表层各层海洋热浪统计特征和月平均海水温度存在明显的空间相关性，以此统计原理为指导，采用多观测样本的地理加权回归(Multiple-replicate geographically weighted regression, MRGWR)模型作为反演模型，并基于海洋环流在2°范围内通常可以近似认为不变的特征做出了带宽的选择。本文构建了单变量指标和多变量指标两种指标体系，并将MRGWR模型与先前研究使用的海洋热浪反演方法广义线性模型(Generalized linear model, GLM)的反演效果进行了对比，证实了利用多变量指标拟合MRGWR模型在反演次表层海洋热浪方面的显著优势。利用所选最优反演模型和指标对1940—2021年间全球次表层海洋热浪的统计特征进行反演，得到其长期变化趋势，该趋势与海水温度上升趋势存在明显的对应关系。本研究为人类活动引起的全球变暖对次表层海洋热浪的影响提供了有力证据。
Abstract：This paper aims to retrieve global subsurface marine heatwaves(MHW) on a long-term scale, in order to characterize their trends over an extended period. Through preliminary data analysis, this paper found that there was a significant spatial correlation between the statistical characteristics of marine heatwaves in the subsurface layers and the monthly average seawater temperature. Guided by this statistical principle, the multiple-replicate geographically weighted regression(MRGWR) model was used as the retrieval model. The bandwidth was selected based on the characteristic that ocean circulation can be approximately considered constant within a 2° range. Furthermore, two indicator systems, namely univariate indicators and multivariate indicators, were constructed. The retrieval performance of the MRGWR model was compared with that of the generalized linear model(GLM), which was previously used for retrieving marine heatwaves, confirming the significant advantage of using multivariate indicators fitting to the MRGWR model in the retrieval of subsurface marine heatwaves. Using the selected optimal retrieval model and indicators, the statistical characteristics of global subsurface marine heatwaves from 1940 to 2021 were retrieved to characterize their long-term trends, which showed a clear correspondence with the rising trend of seawater temperature. This paper provides strong evidence for the impact of global warming caused by human activities on subsurface marine heatwaves.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.16441/j.cnki.hdxb.20240185
中图分类号:P714.2
引用信息:
[1]巩宗晴,李芙蓉.全球次表层海洋热浪统计特征的反演方法研究[J].中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版),2026,56(03):23-40.DOI:10.16441/j.cnki.hdxb.20240185.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金项目(41906011)资助~~
2024-04-26
2024
2025-12-22
2025
2
2026-02-10
2026-02-10