考虑到东海近海区的水文学特征,借助对资料和预报量的分级处理而预报盐度的分布。本文阐述了预报方法和预报结果(1979—1982),并且分析了对本海区盐度分布变化有重大影响的显著因子。预报结果和实测值的对比表明,所采用的方法是实用可行的,从1979—1981年的三年期间,预报平均值度在1％之内者为86％,预报趋势和观测值基本一致。

Considering the hydrologic features in the offshore area of the East China Sea, we predict the salinity distribution by means of grading the pred ition and data.Inthis paper, the predicting method and the predicted results (1979-1982) are described and the notable factors which have a great influence upon variation of salinity distribution in this area are analysed. Comparison of the predicted results with the observed values has shown that the adopted method is feasible. The mean exactitude within 1‰ of predicted errors is 86% during the three years from 1979 to 1981 and the predicted tendency is more or less in agreement with the observed values.