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针对青岛市围填海区在气候变化下面临的风暴潮淹没与暴雨内涝双重威胁，及其因城市结构变迁引发的差异化风险特征问题，为有效评估此类风险，本文从多因素综合作用角度出发，对城市结构变迁影响下的围填海区淹没风险特征进行分类，探究城市结构变迁影响下的围填海区的淹没风险变化。预测结果表明，在2℃升温和4℃升温情景下，8种台风类型所引起的风暴潮淹没范围均将在2055年达到最大值。进一步叠加社会与经济因素后，围填海淹没区的淹没风险也呈现出增加的趋势。与此同时，随着城市结构变迁对围填海区的影响，这些区域在未来风暴潮影响下的淹没风险可以被细化为三种类型：(1)由气候变化直接引发的淹没风险增加；(2)气候与社会经济因素共同作用下产生的淹没风险增加；(3)因围填海区域由沿海向内陆转化而引发的内涝型淹没风险增加。因此，为积极应对气候变化背景下青岛围填海区的淹没风险，需将气候情景与围填海区的地理特征、经济与社会要素分布特征结合起来，开展有效评估，进而制定差异化的风险治理策略。
Abstract：In view of the dual threats of storm surge inundation and rainstorm waterlogging faced by the reclamation areas in Qingdao City under climate change, as well as the differentiated risk characteristics caused by urban structural changes, in order to solve the core issue of how to effectively assess, this paper classified the inundation risk characteristics of the reclamation areas under the influence of urban structural changes from the perspective of the combined effect of multiple factors. Explored the changes in the inundation risk of reclamation areas under the influence of urban structuralchanges.The results showed that under the 2 ℃ and 4 ℃ warming scenarios, the eight typhoon types will reach the maximum inundation range in 2055. With the addition of social and economic factors, the inundation risk of the reclaimed area also showed an increasing trend. At the same time, with the impact of urban structural changes on the reclaimed areas, the inundation risk of these areas under the influence of future storm surges can be divided into three types: the increased inundation risk caused by climate factors, the increased inundation risk caused by the combination of climate and socio-economic factors, and the increased inundation risk caused by the transition from coastal to inland. Therefore, in order to actively cope with the inundation risk of Qingdao reclamation area under the background of climate change, it is necessary to combine the climate scenario with the geographical characteristics, economic and social distribution characteristics of the reclamation area, and carry out an effective assessment, so as to formulate a management plan for business alienation on this basis.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.16441/j.cnki.hdxb.20250097
中图分类号:P467;P748;P731.23
引用信息:
[1]张文袖,于格,江文胜,等.气候变化背景下风暴潮对海岸带城市围填海区的淹没影响分析——以山东省青岛市为例[J].中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版),2026,56(02):114-128.DOI:10.16441/j.cnki.hdxb.20250097.
基金信息:
C40城市气候行动方案项目(20200258); 中瑞合作项目(INTASAVE ACCC-045)资助~~
2025-03-19
2025
2025-04-17
2025
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2026-02-02
2026-02-02