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海洋捕捞风险评价对于保障海洋捕捞安全至关重要，以往研究主要关注渔船事故，但对捕捞海域固有的环境风险及社会风险关注较少。为定量评价捕捞海域中威胁渔船及渔民安全的固有风险，本研究利用遥感和GIS技术开发了渔场风险评估模型，该模型通过层次分析法构建渔场风险指数体系。结合AIS数据和夜间灯光数据分析了渔船分布模式，并对渔场风险管理问题和渔业利益相关者进行矩阵分析，以构建渔场风险应对能力指标。结果显示，环境风险与社会风险空间分布模式相反，高环境风险海域表现出明显的空间聚集特征。2020年，亚洲沿海及附近捕捞海域超过95%的区域为中低风险，约1.62%的区域为高风险或最高风险，高风险区域集中分布在菲律宾主张的专属经济区和苏拉威西海东部海域。各国渔船面临的渔场风险差异显著，印度尼西亚最高，密克罗尼西亚联邦最低。渔船在低风险海域的捕捞密度最高，在高风险海域的捕捞密度最低。渔场风险管理能力与国家社会发展水平呈正相关。本研究结果可为制定有效的风险管理决策提供可靠的科学依据。
Abstract：Effective risk assessment of marine fishing ensures the safety of marine fishing. Previous studies have mainly focused on the safety of fishing vessel accidents, and relatively less attention has been given to the inherent environmental and social risks in fishing grounds. In order to quantitatively evaluate the inherent risks that threaten the safety of fishing vessels and fishermen in the fishing grounds, in this study, we developed a fishing ground risk assessment model based on remote sensing and GIS technology. The model uses the analytic hierarchy process(AHP) to construct a fishing ground risk index, combines AIS data and nighttime light data to analyze the distribution pattern of fishing vessels, and conducts a matrix analysis of fishing ground risk management issues and fishery stakeholders to establish fishing ground risk adaptive capacity index. The results showed that environmental risk has an opposite spatial distribution pattern to social risk, with high environmental risk areas showing obvious spatial clustering characteristics. In 2020, more than 95% of the areas in the Asian coastal and adjacent fishing waters were categorized as low to medium risk areas while about 1.62% were classified as high or minimum risk areas with the high-risk areas concentrated in the exclusive economic zone(EEZ) claimed by Philippines and the eastern waters of the Sulawesi Sea. Significant difference in fishing ground risk faced by fishing vessels was observed among flag states with Indonesia having the highest and the Federated States of Micronesia the lowest. Fishing vessels exhibited the highest fishing intensity in low-risk areas and the lowest in high-risk areas. The level of national social development shows a positive correlation with its capacity to manage fishing grounds risks. The findings of the study can serve as a robust scientific foundation for formulating effective risk management strategies.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.16441/j.cnki.hdxb.20240130
中图分类号:P208;P237;S951.4
引用信息:
[1]景有甫,田浩,刘阳.基于遥感和GIS的亚洲沿海及附近捕捞海域风险评价体系构建及应用[J].中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版),2025,55(12):50-63.DOI:10.16441/j.cnki.hdxb.20240130.
基金信息:
国家重点研究发展计划项目(2023YFD2401300)资助~~