| 88 | 0 | 52 |
| 下载次数 | 被引频次 | 阅读次数 |
格陵兰岛作为北极气候变化的敏感区域，其极端降水和雨雪比例的变化对冰盖物质平衡具有重要影响。本研究通过耦合器(coupler, CPL)实现了大气-海洋-海冰的高效协同模拟(WRF-ROMS-CICE,WRC),优化了并行计算算法、升级了模式核心版本，改进了海冰边界条件的物理处理方案，在此基础上，量化了格陵兰岛在历史时期(2005—2014年)和未来高排放情景(SSP5-8.5,2091—2100年)下极端降水的时空演变特征及降水相态转变趋势。本文首先进行了模式评估，结果表明，WRC能够较好的复现格陵兰岛地区的气温、降水、风速及辐射的基本分布；与第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(coupled model intercomparison project Phase 6,CMIP6)多模式结果相比，WRC在模拟极端降水强度方面具有显著优势，能够捕捉沿海地区高值特征。数值试验表明，未来格陵兰岛极端降水事件将呈现"强度增强、频率增加、持续时间延长、全域增强、沿海突出”的变化格局：格陵兰岛整体极端降水频率、持续时间和强度分别增加25%,26%和26%,其中降水强度在东南部绝对增幅最大(+5.1 mm/d),北部相对增幅最高(33%)。季节变化显示，夏季(6—9月)极端降水强度增幅最为突出，特别是东南部9月累积量可达87.6 mm/month。此外，未来格陵兰岛降水结构将显著转变，在当前气候条件下，格陵兰降水以固态为主(70%～100%),但未来情景显示沿海和冰盖边缘区域降雪比例显著下降(最大降幅达30%),全岛降雪比例整体下降10%～20%,夏季液态降水占比增加10%～30%。高排放情景下，气温升高突破相变临界点，反照率下降(降幅0.033～0.036)触发“降雪减少-升温-促融”正反馈，加剧冰盖质量亏损。尽管降水量增加(夏季单月增幅达20 mm),雨雪比例变化仍可能加速冰盖退缩，对极地水文和气候系统产生深远影响。本文研究结果有助于理解格陵兰岛气候变化的区域特征及其冰盖-气候反馈机制。
Abstract：Greenland, as a sensitive region to Arctic climate change, exhibits extreme precipitation and rain-snow partitioning shifts that critically influence ice sheet mass balance. Our study achieved efficient coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice simulations(WRF-ROMS-CICE, WRC) through the coupler(CPL), optimizing parallel computing algorithms, upgrading core model versions, and improving the physical treatment scheme of sea ice boundary conditions. On this basis, we quantified the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of extreme precipitation and precipitation phase transition trends over Greenland during the historical period(2005—2014) and under the future high-emission scenario(SSP5-8.5, 2091—2100). Evaluation shows WRC reliably reproduces Greenland's temperature, precipitation, wind, and radiation patterns, outperforming CMIP6 models in capturing extreme precipitation intensity, especially coastal extremes. Projections reveal a 25%, 26%, 26% increase in extreme precipitation frequency, duration, and intensity, with peak absolute(+5.1 mm/d) and relative(33%) gains in the southeast and north, respectively. Summer(June-September) sees the strongest intensification(e.g., +87.6 mm/month in September, southeast). Precipitation phase shifts markedly: snow fraction declines 10%～20% island-wide(coastal zones: up to 30%), while summer liquid precipitation rises 10%～30%. Under high emissions, reduced snowfall lowers albedo(Δα=-0.033 to-0.036), enhancing warming and accelerating ice loss. Despite increased summer precipitation(+20 mm/month), more rainfall accelerates ice sheet retreat, significantly impacting polar systems. These findings elucidate Greenland's climate-ice feedbacks under anthropogenic forcing.
[1] Walsh J E,Ballinger T J,Euskirchen E S,et al.Extreme weather and climate events in northern areas:A review[J].Earth-Science Reviews,2020,209:103324.
[2] Xu C,Yuan C,Li X,et al.Projection of disaster-causing risk of extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin based on CMIP6[J].Hydrology Research,2023,54(3):401-417.
[3] Gilbert E,Pishniak D,Torres J A,et al.Extreme precipitation associated with atmospheric rivers over West Antarctic ice shelves:Insights from kilometre-scale regional climate modelling[J].The Cryosphere,2025,19(2):597-618.
[4] Pithan F,Jung T.Arctic amplification of precipitation changes:The energy hypothesis[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2021,48(21):e2021GL094977.
[5] Shepherd A,Ivins E,Rignot E,et al.Mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet from 1992 to 2018[J].Nature,2020,579(7798):233-239.
[6] Trusel L D,Das S B,Osman M B,et al.Nonlinear rise in Greenland runoff in response to post-industrial Arctic warming[J].Nature,2018,564(7734):104-108.
[7] No?l B,van de Berg W J,van Wessem J M,et al.Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2-Part 1:Greenland (1958-2016)[J].The Cryosphere,2018,12(3):811-831.
[8] Mc Crystall M R,Stroeve J,Serreze M,et al.New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected[J].Nature Communications,2021,12(1):6765.
[9] Leeson A A,Shepherd A,Briggs K,et al.Supraglacial lakes on the Greenland ice sheet advance inland under warming climate[J].Nature Climate Change,2015,5(1):51-55.
[10] Tedesco M,Fettweis X.Unprecedented atmospheric conditions (1948—2019) drive the 2019 exceptional melting season over the Greenland ice sheet[J].The Cryosphere,2020,14(4):1209-1223.
[11] Box J E,Wehrlé A,van As D,et al.Greenland ice sheet rainfall,heat and albedo feedback impacts from the mid-August 2021 atmospheric river[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2022,49(11):e2021GL097356.
[12] Tedesco M,Fettweis X,Mote T,et al.Evidence and analysis of 2012 Greenland records from spaceborne observations,a regional climate model and reanalysis data[J].The Cryosphere Discussions,2013,7(2):615-630.
[13] Box J E,Nielsen K P,Yang X,et al.Greenland ice sheet rainfall climatology,extremes and atmospheric river rapids[J].Meteorological Applications,2023,30(4):e2134.
[14] Xie Y,Pettersen C,Flanner M,et al.Ground-observed snow albedo changes during rain-on-snow events in Northern Alaska[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2024,129(16):e2024JD040975.
[15] Mattingly K S,Mote T L,Fettweis X.Atmospheric river impacts on Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance[J].Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres,2018,123(16):8538-8560.
[16] Xu M,Yang Q,Hu X,et al.Record-breaking rain falls at Greenland summit controlled by warm moist-air intrusion[J].Environmental Research Letters,2022,17(4):044061.
[17] Ravinder N,Shepherd A,Otosaka I,et al.Greenland ice sheet elevation change from CryoSat-2 and ICESat-2[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2024,51(24):e2024GL110822.
[18] Behrangi A,Tian Y,Lambrigtsen B H,et al.What does cloudsat reveal about global land precipitation detection by other spaceborne sensors?[J].Water Resources Research,2014,50(6):4893-4905.
[19] Skofronick-Jackson G,Kirschbaum D,Petersen W,et al.The global precipitation measurement (GPM) mission’s scientific achievements and societal contributions:Reviewing four years of advanced rain and snow observations[J].Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,2018,144:27-48.
[20] Vavrus S,Harrison S P.The impact of sea-ice dynamics on the Arctic climate system[J].Climate Dynamics,2003,20(7-8):741-757.
[21] Cai Z,You Q,Chen H W,et al.Assessing Arctic wetting:Performances of CMIP6 models and projections of precipitation changes[J].Atmospheric Research,2024,297:107124.
[22] Noel B,van de Berg W J,Lhermitte S,et al.Rapid ablation zone expansion amplifies north Greenland mass loss[J].Science Advances,2019,5(9):eaaw0123.
[23] Haarsma R J,Roberts M J,Vidale P L,et al.High resolution model intercomparison project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6[J].Geoscientific Model Development,2016,9(11):4185-4208.
[24] Forbes R M,Ahlgrimm M.On the representation of high-latitude boundary layer mixed-phase cloud in the ECMWF global model[J].Monthly Weather Review,2014,142(9):3425-3445.
[25] 刘喜迎.采用耦合器组件的区域冰-洋耦合模式的实现[J].计算机工程与应用，2010,46(1):24-27.Liu X Y.Implementation of sea ice-ocean coupled model in form of coupler component[J].Computer Engineering and Applications,2010,46(1):24-27.
[26] Liu X.Biases of the Arctic climate in a regional ocean-sea ice-atmosphere coupled model:An annual validation[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2014,33(9):56-67.
[27] Yang L,Smith J,Liu M,et al.Extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey (2017):Empirical intercomparisons of WRF simulations and polarimetric radar fields[J].Atmospheric Research,2019,223:114-131.
[28] Holland M M,Bailey D A,Briegleb B P,et al.Improved sea ice shortwave radiation physics in CCSM4:The impact of melt ponds and aerosols on Arctic sea ice[J].Journal of Climate,2012,25(5):1413-1430.
[29] Srinivas C,Yesubabu V,Prasad D H,et al.Simulation of an extreme heavy rainfall event over Chennai,India using WRF:Sensitivity to grid resolution and boundary layer physics[J].Atmospheric Research,2018,210:66-82.
[30] Chen F,Dudhia J.Coupling an advanced land surface-hydrology model with the Penn State-NCAR MM5 modeling system.Part I:Model implementation and sensitivity[J].Monthly Weather Review,2001,129(4):569-585.
[31] Karmakar S,Srinivas C,Rakesh P T,et al.A WRF-FLEXPART simulation study of oil-fire plume dispersion-sensitivity to turbulent diffusion schemes[J].Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics,2022,134(2):32.
[32] Mankoff K D,Colgan W,Solgaard A,et al.Greenland ice sheet solid ice discharge from 1986 through 2017[J].Earth System Science Data,2019,11(2):769-786.
[33] Vincent A,Violette S,Aoalgeirsdottir G.Groundwater in catchments headed by temperate glaciers:A review[J].Earth-Science Reviews,2019,188:59-76.
[34] Pendergrass A G.What precipitation is extreme?[J].Science,2018,360(6393):1072-1073.
[35] Barrett A P,Stroeve J C,Serreze M C.Arctic Ocean precipitation from atmospheric reanalyses and comparisons with north pole drifting station records[J].Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans,2020,125(1):e2019JC015415.
[36] Hersbach H,Bell B,Berrisford P,et al.The ERA5 global reanalysis[J].Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,2020,146(730):1999-2049.
[37] Ning W,Wang Y,Zhang W,et al.What recent global atmospheric reanalyses and regional climate models can represent observed snow accumulation on Antarctica?[J].Atmospheric Research,2024,300:107260.
[38] Loeb N A,Crawford A,Herrington A,et al.Projections and physical drivers of extreme precipitation in Greenland & Baffin Bay[J].Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres,2024,129(22):e2024JD041375.
[39] Herrington A R,Lauritzen P H,Lofverstrom M,et al.Impact of grids and dynamical cores in CESM2.2 on the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet[J].Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,2022,14(11):e2022MS003192.
[40] van Kampenhout L,Rhoades A M,Herrington A R,et al.Regional grid refinement in an Earth system model:Impacts on the simulated Greenland surface mass balance[J].Cryosphere,2019,13(6):1547-1564.
[41] Wei T,Zhao S,Noel B,et al.Deciphering the trend and interannual variability of temperature and precipitation extremes over Greenland during 1958—2019[J].Journal of Climate,2023,36(14):4777-4791.
[42] Danabasoglu G.NCAR CESM2 model output prepared for CMIP6 scenario MIP ssp585[DS/OL].Earth System Grid Federation,2019.https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.7768.
[43] Nellikkattil A B,Lee J Y,Guan B,et al.Increased amplitude of atmospheric rivers and associated extreme precipitation in ultra-high-resolution greenhouse warming simulations[J].Communications Earth & Environment,2023,4(1):313.
[44] Pfahl S,O’Gorman P A,Fischer E M.Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation[J].Nature Climate Change,2017,7(6):423-427.
[45] Bintanja R,Andry O.Towards a rain-dominated Arctic[J].Nature Climate Change,2017,7(4):263-267.
[46] Berghuijs W R,Woods R A,Hrachowitz M.A precipitation shift from snow towards rain leads to a decrease in streamflow[J].Nature Climate Change,2014,4(7):583-586.
[47] Screen J A,Simmonds I.Declining summer snowfall in the Arctic:Causes,impacts and feedbacks[J].Climate Dynamics,2012,38(11-12):2243-2256.
[48] Hansen B B,Gamelon M,Albon S D,et al.More frequent extreme climate events stabilize reindeer population dynamics[J].Nature Communications,2019,10:1616.
[49] Bengtsson L,Hodges K I,Koumoutsaris S,et al.The changing atmospheric water cycle in Polar Regions in a warmer climate[J].Tellus Series A:Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography,2011,63(5):907-920.
[50] Vandecrux B,Fausto R S,Langen P L,et al.Drivers of firn density on the greenland ice sheet revealed by weather station observations and modeling[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Earth Surface,2018,123(10):2563-2576.
[51] No?l B,van de Berg W J,van Meijgaard E,et al.Evaluation of the updated regional climate model RACMO 2.3:Summer snowfall impact on the Greenland ice sheet[J].The Cryosphere,2015,9(5):1831-1844.
[52] van den Broeke M,Enderlin E,Howat I,et al.On the recent contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level change[J].Cryosphere,2016,10(5):1933-1946.
[53] Bintanja R,Selten F M.Future increases in Arctic precipitation linked to local evaporation and sea-ice retreat[J].Nature,2014,509(7501):479-482.
[54] Fettweis X,Box J E,Agosta C,et al.Reconstructions of the 1900—2015 Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance using the regional climate MAR model[J].The Cryosphere,2017,11(2):1015-1033.
基本信息:
DOI：10.16441/j.cnki.hdxb.20250140
中图分类号:P461.2
引用信息:
[1]高阳,才天昊,程文轩,等.基于WRF-ROMS-CICE耦合模式的格陵兰岛极端降水与雨雪比例研究[J].中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版),2025,55(12):1-12.DOI:10.16441/j.cnki.hdxb.20250140.
基金信息:
国家重点研究发展计划项目(2022YFE0106400); 中央高校基本科研业务费专项(202341001)资助~~