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本文基于南海万山群岛附近海域遇险目标(渔船)漂移轨迹实验获取的观测数据，探究并揭示了数据时间分辨率差异对渔船漂移轨迹预测精度的影响规律。基于约束性线性回归和非约束性线性回归，率定不同时间分辨率数据的风致漂移参数发现，遇险目标风致漂移速度(L)和顺风向漂移速度(DWL)与10 m风速拟合较好，且非约束性线性回归拟合效果较优。检验非约束性回归率定的风致漂移参数发现，相对于其他时间分辨率数据，30 min时间分辨率数据率定风致漂移参数拟合效果较优。对比AP98模型漂移轨迹预测精度发现，对于预测轨迹与实测轨迹误差较小的实验，时间分辨率数据的差异对其轨迹预测精度的总体影响不明显。对于误差较大的实验，不同时间分辨率数据对预测轨迹精度影响较大，当数据时间分辨率为30 min时，预测精度明显高于其他时间分辨率数据的预测精度，且在所有实验中30 min时间分辨率数据的整体平均误差最小。研究成果可为海上遇险目标漂移轨迹预测模型优化，以及遇险目标海上观测实验和数值预报动力场的时间分辨率设置提供科学依据。
Abstract：This study aimed to reveal the influence of different temporal resolution data on the drift trajectory prediction, based on observational data from drift trajectory experiments of fishing vessel in the Wanshan Islands, South China Sea, Both the constrained and unconstrained regression indicated that 10 m wind speed had a significant linear relationship with the wind-induced leeway speed(L)and downwind leeway speed(DWL). Moreover, the unconstrained regression matched better. Notably, the wind-induced drift parameters calibrated by the unconstrained regression with 30 min resolution data fitted the best, compared with other temporal resolution data. Furthermore, the drift trajectory prediction using the AP98 model showed that, the temporal resolution data influenced insignificantly on the experiments with small difference between prediction and observation trajectory, but significantly on the experiments with large difference. In particularly, the prediction accuracy using 30 min temporal resolution was markedly higher than those for other temporal resolutions, and its overall average error was the smallest. The results can optimize the maritime drift trajectory prediction model, and provide scientific foundation for conducting maritime observation experiments on distress targets and setting the temporal resolution of numerical forecast model.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.16441/j.cnki.hdxb.20250190
中图分类号:U698;P732
引用信息:
[1]张树钦,张丽雯,吕文琦,等.气象和海洋数据时间分辨率差异对渔船漂移轨迹预测精度的影响[J].中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版),2026,56(05):11-23.DOI:10.16441/j.cnki.hdxb.20250190.
基金信息:
国家重点研究发展计划项目(2021YFC3101801,2023YFC3008205); 广东省基础与应用基础基金项目(2024A1515240012); 广东省普通高校青年创新人才类项目(2022KQNCX026); 广东省教育厅创新团队项目(2023KCXTD015); 粤西热带海洋生态环境广东省野外科学观测研究站项目(2024B1212040008); 广东海洋大学大学生创新创业项目(S202410566018);广东海洋大学学生创新团队项目(CXTD2021007)资助~~
2025-09-25
2025-09-25
2025-09-25