张晏铭,郑小童

• 1:中国海洋大学物理海洋教育部重点实验室
• 2:海洋与大气学院
• 3:青岛海洋科学与技术试点国家实验室

摘要(Abstract)：

厄尔尼诺(El Ni1o)事件可根据海温极大值中心分为东部型El Ni1o和中部型El Ni1o。本研究通过观测资料研究了1979—2020年两类El Ni1o事件对次年山东夏季(6—8月)季节平均和月平均降水异常的影响。结果显示，中部型El Ni1o次年夏季西北太平洋反气旋较气候态偏北，进而增强东亚夏季风，使得山东夏季平均降水偏多。伴随着反气旋在季节内的北移，降水正异常在晚夏(8月)最为显著，而东部型El Ni1o次年夏季反气旋较气候态偏南偏弱。同期日本列岛地区由于东亚-太平洋遥相关负位相的出现产生异常气旋，山东地区受气旋西侧干冷北风控制，夏季降水偏少。由于气旋强度在季节内逐渐降低，所以山东干旱在初夏(6月)最显著。这些结果可以为未来山东夏季降水季节预测提供重要参考。

关键词(KeyWords)： 中部型El Ni1o;东部型El Ni1o;西北太平洋反气旋;东亚-太平洋遥相关;山东夏季降水

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 山东省自然科学基金重大基础研究项目(ZR2019ZD12)资助~~

作者(Author): 张晏铭,郑小童

DOI: 10.16441/j.cnki.hdxb.20220349

参考文献(References)：

• [1] 张苏平，朱平盛，胡桂芳.山东夏季降水与北太平洋SST和大气环流的关系[J].气象，1997,23(4):4-9.Zhang S P,Zhu P S,Hu G F.Relationship among summer rainfall in Shandong and North Pacific SST and atmospheric circulations[J].Meteorological Monthly,1997,23(4):4-9.
• [2] 林子伦，郭丽娜，郭飞燕，等.山东半岛夏季降水异常的环流型及影响因子分析[J].海洋气象学报，2019,39(1):55-67.Lin Z L,Guo L N,Guo F Y,et al.Analysis of atmospheric circulation patterns and influencing factors for summer precipitation anomaly in Shandong Peninsula[J].Journal of Marine Meteorology,2019,39(1):55-67.
• [3] 欧阳婧怡，黄菲，许士斌，等.1949-2019年影响山东的热带气旋时空分布及极端降水和大气环流异常[J].海洋气象学报，2021,41(4):1-10.Ouyang J Y,Huang F,Xu S B,et al.Spatial and temporal distribution of tropical cyclones affecting Shandong as well as the extreme precipitations and atmospheric circulation anomalies from 1949 to 2019[J].Journal of Marine Meteorology,2021,41(4):1-10.
• [4] 王娜，顾伟宗，孟祥新.山东夏季降水年际优势模态及对应大气环流特征[J].气象，2019,45(1):99-112.Wang N,Gu W Z,Meng X X.Dominant interanual modes of summer precipitation over Shandong Province and its atmospheric circulation characteristics[J].Meteorological Monthly,2019,45(1):99-112.
• [5] Wang B,Wu R,Fu X.Pacific-East Asian teleconnection:How does ENSO affect East Asian climate[J].Journal of Climate,2003,13(9):1517-1536.
• [6] Wang B,Wu R,Li T.Atmosphere-warm ocean interaction and its impacts on Asian-Australian monsoon variation[J].Journal of Climate,2003,16(8):1195-1211.
• [7] Xie S P,Hu K,Hafner J,et al.Indian Ocean capacitor effect on Indo-Western pacific climate during the summer following El Niňo[J].Journal of Climate,2009,30(24):10037-10045.
• [8] Xie S P,Kosaka Y,Du Y,et al.Indo-western Pacific Ocean capacitor and coherent climate anomalies in post-ENSO summer:A review[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2016,33(4):411-432.
• [9] Hu K M,Huang G,Zheng X T,et al.Interdecadal variations in ENSO influences on northwest Pacific-East Asian early summertime climate simulated in CMIP5 models[J].Journal of Climate,2014,27(15):5982-5998.
• [10] Zhang R H,Sumi A,Kimoto M.A diagnostic study of the impact of El Niňo on the precipitation in China[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,1999,16(2):229-241.
• [11] Zhang R H,Sumi A.Moisture circulation over East Asia during El Niňo episode in northern winter,spring and autumn[J].Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan,2002,80(2):213-227.
• [12] 赵亮，邹力，王成林，等.ENSO年东亚夏季风异常对中国江、淮流域夏季降水的影响[J].热带气象学报，2006,22(4):360-366.Zhao L,Zou L,Wang C L,et al.Impacts of the East Asian summer monsoon anomaly during the ENSO event period on the summer precipitation in the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze river and Huaihe river valley[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2006,22(4):360-366.
• [13] 吴萍，丁一汇，柳艳菊.厄尔尼诺事件对中国夏季水汽输送和降水分布影响的新研究[J].气象学报，2017,75(3):371-383.Wu P,Ding Y H,Liu Y J.A new study of El Niňo impacts on summertime water vapor transport and rainfall in China[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2017,75(3):371-383.
• [14] 胡桂芳.山东夏季降水分布型及与全国雨型的关系[J].山东气象，2011,31(1):1-4.Hu G F.The relationship between the space pattern of summer precipitation in Shandong and China[J].Shandong Meteorological,2011,31(1):1-4.
• [15] Zhang S,Hu G.Convective anomalies in tropical ocean areas and long lead forecast of summer rainfall in Shandong[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2002,8(1):56-62.
• [16] 于婷婷，刘路花.近30a山东夏季降水特征及成因分析[J].暴雨灾害，2016,35(3):291-296.Yu T T,Liu L H.Analysis of anomalous characteristics and genesis of summer precipitation in Shandong Province nearly 30 years[J].Torrential Rain and Disasters,2016,35(3):291-296.
• [17] Barnett T P.The interaction of multiple time scales in the tropical climate system[J].Journal of Climate,1991,4(3):269-285.
• [18] Bejarano L,Jin F F.Coexistence of equatorial coupled modes of ENSO[J].Journal of Climate,2008,21(12):3051-3067.
• [19] Chen W,Park J K,Dong B,et al.The relationship between El Niňo and the western North Pacific summer climate in a coupled GCM:Role of the transition of El Niňo decaying phases[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2012,117(D12111):1-18.
• [20] Zhou X,Liu F,Wang B,et al.Different responses of East Asian summer rainfall to El Niňo decays[J].Climate Dynamics,2019,53:1497-1515.
• [21] Yang X,Huang P.The diversity of ENSO evolution during the typical decaying periods determined by an ENSO developing mode[J].Journal of Climate,2022,35(12):3877-3889.
• [22] Lee S K,Dinezio P N,Chung E S,et al.Spring persistence,transition,and resurgence of El Niňo[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2014,41(23):8578-8585.
• [23] Larkin N K,D E Harrison.Global seasonal temperature and precipitation anomalies during El Niňo autumn and winter[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2005,32(L16705):1-4.
• [24] Ashok K,Behera S K,Rao S A,et al.El Niňo Modoki and its possible teleconnection[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans,2007,112(C11007):1-27.
• [25] Kao H Y,Yu J Y.Contrasting Eastern-Pacific and Central-Pacific types of ENSO[J].Journal of Climate,2009,22(3):615-632.
• [26] Kug J S,Jin F F,An S I.Two types of El Niňo events:Cold tongue El Niňo and warm pool El Niňo[J].Journal of Climate,2009,22(6):1499-1515.
• [27] Feng J,Chen W,Tam C Y,et al.Different impacts of El Niňo and El Niňo Modoki on China rainfall in the decaying phases[J].International Journal of Climatology,2011,31(14):2091-2101.
• [28] 李海燕，孙家仁，谌志刚，等.两类El Niňo事件对华南前汛期降水异常的影响[J].热带气象学报，2019,35(4):491-503.Li H Y,Sun J R,Chen Z G,et al.Influences of two types of El Niňo events on percipitation anomalies in the April-June rainy season over South China[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2019,35(4):491-503.
• [29] 赵煜飞，朱江，许艳.近50 a中国降水格点数据集的建立及质量评估[J].气象科学，2014,34(4):414-420.Zhao Y F,Zhu J,Xu Y.Establishment and assessment of the grid precipitation datasets in China for recent 50 years[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2014,34(4):414-420.
• [30] Hersbach H,Bell B,Berrisford P,et al.The ERA5 global reanalysis[J].Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,2020,146(730):1999-2049.
• [31] Rayner N A,Parker D E,Horton E B,et al.Global analyses of sea surface temperature,sea ice,and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2003,108(D14):1-22.
• [32] Adler R F,Sapiano M R P,Huffman G J,et al.The global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) monthly analysis (New Version 2.3) and a review of 2017 global precipitation[J].Atmosphere,2018,9(4):138.
• [33] Nitta T.Convective activities in the tropical Western Pacific and their impact on the northern hemisphere Summer circulation[J].Meteorological Society of Japan,1987,65(3):373-390.
• [34] 黄荣辉，李维京.夏季热带西太平洋上空的热源异常对东亚上空副热带高压的影响及其物理机制[J].大气科学，1988,12(s1):107-116.Huang R H,Li W J.Influence of heat source anomaly over the western tropical Pacific on the subtropical high over East Asia and its physical mechanism[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,1988,12(s1):107-116.
• [35] 黄荣辉，孙凤英.热带西太平洋暖池的热状态及其上空的对流活动对东亚夏季气候异常的影响[J].大气科学，1994,18(2):141-151.Huang R H,Sun F Y.Impacts of the thermal state and the convective activities in the tropical western warm pool on the summer climate anomalies in East Asia[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,1994,18(2):141-151.
• [36] Rong X Y,Zhang R H,Li T.Impacts of Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies on Indo-East Asian summer monsoon-ENSO relationship[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2010,55(22):2458-2468.
• [37] Ham Y G ,Kug J S,Park J Y,et al.Sea surface temperature in the north tropical Atlantic as a trigger for El Niňo/Southern Oscillation events[J].Nature Geoscience,2013(6):112-116.
• [38] Feng J,Chen W.Roles of the North Indian Ocean SST and Tropical North Atlantic SST in the latitudinal extension of the anomalous Western North Pacific anticyclone during the El Niňo decaying Summer[J].Journal of Climate,2021,34(21):8503-8517.
• [39] Ding Y H,Chan J C L.The East Asian summer monsoon:An overview[J].Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics,2005(89):117-142.
• [40] Hu K M,Xie S P,Huang G.Orographically anchored El Niňo effect on Summer rainfall in Central China[J].Journal of Climate,2017,30(24):10037-10045.

文章评论(Comment)：