冬季北大西洋涛动与极涡的变化研究Study on the Variability of Winter Time NAO and Polar Vortex
朱智慧,王延凤
摘要(Abstract):
采用NCEP/NCAR(National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Centers for Atmospheric Research)再分析资料,分析了冬季北大西洋涛动(NAO,Northern Atlantic Oscilation)指数、极涡面积(PVA,Polar Vortex Area)指数、极涡强度(PVI,Polar Vortex Intention)指数的变化。研究结果表明:冬季PVA指数基本和NAO指数呈反位相变化,冬季PVA指数具有明显的下降趋势;冬季NAO指数、PVA指数、PVI指数都具有多重周期变化特征,具有较为一致的年际、年代际变化周期,都具有准9 a的年代际振荡周期和4~5 a的年际振荡周期;在强(弱)NAO指数年份,极地地区500 hPa高度场降低(升高),冷空气向极地地区收缩(冷空气向中纬度活动),PVA指数偏小(偏大),而PVI指数偏大(偏小),在年际变化尺度上,NAO与极涡的关系主要表现在极涡为2极分布,且极涡偏向大西洋侧,太平洋侧较弱,为典型的北大西洋局地的NAO分布;在1988年左右,冬季NAO指数有一突变现象,冬季PVI指数在1976年前后有一突变现象,比冬季NAO指数的气候突变要稍微提前,冬季PVA指数没有明显的突变现象。NAO指数突变后60°N以北的距平中心位置更靠东,强度更大。在年代际变化尺度上,极涡表现为3极,其显著变化中心主要表现在40°N附近的异常高中心,且环球一圈,没有极涡的优势偏心特征。
关键词(KeyWords): 北大西洋涛动;极涡;年际变化;年代际变化
基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(4057016);; 国家基础研究发展计划项目(2005CB422302)资助
作者(Author): 朱智慧,王延凤
DOI: 10.16441/j.cnki.hdxb.2009.s1.053
参考文献(References):
- [1]Dugam S S,Kakade S B,Verma R K.Interannual and long-termvariability in the North Atlantic Oscillation and Indian Summer mon-soon rainfall[J].Theor Appl Climato,1997,58(1-2):21-29.
- [2]Hurrell J W.Influence of variations in extratropical winter-time tele-connections on Northern Hemisphere[J].Geophysical Research Let-ters,1996,23:665-668.
- [3]Clivar W M O.A research program on climate variability and pre-dictability for the 21st century[R].[s.l.]:WCRP NO.101,WMO/TD No.853,ICPO No.10,UNESCO,1997:1-48.
- [4]Rogers J C.The association between the North Atlantic Oscillationand the Southern Oscillation in the Northern Hemisphere[J].Monthly Weather Review,1984,112:1999-2015.
- [5]Koslowski G,Loewe P.The western Baltic sea ice season in terms ofa mass-related severity index 1879-1992,Part I:temporal variabilityand association with the North Atlantic Oscillation[J].Tellus,1994,46A:66-74.
- [6]Hurrell J W,Loon H V.Decadal variations in climate association withthe North Atlantic Oscillation[J].Climatic Change,1997,36:301-326.
- [7]龚道溢,王绍武.北大西洋涛动指数的比较及其年代际变率[J].大气科学,2000,24(2):187-192.
- [8]武炳义,黄荣辉.冬季北大西洋涛动极端异常变化与东亚冬季风[J].大气科学,1999,23(6):641-651.
- [9]陈永仁,李跃清.夏季北半球极涡与南亚高压东西振荡的关系[J].高原气象,2007,26(5):1067-1076.
- [10]张先恭,魏凤英.北半球极涡与西太平洋副热带高压的相互关系[C].长期天气预报论文集.北京:气象出版社,1990:226-231.
- [11]王柏约,陈刚毅.北太平洋海表温度与500 hPa西太平洋副高和极涡相互作用的统计分析[J].大气科学,1992,16(3):263-273.
- [12]张恒德,陆维松,高守亭,等.北极涡活动对我国同期及后期气温的影响[J].南京气象学院学报,2006,29(4):507-516.
- [13]章少卿,于通江,李方友,等.北半球极涡面积、强度的季节变化及其与中国东北地区的气温的关系[J].大气科学,1984,9(2):178-185.
- [14]黄嘉佑,刘舸,赵昕奕.副高、极涡因子对我国夏季降水的影响[J].大气科学,2004,28(4):517-526.
- [15]张瑞萍,周叶芳,郭可义.2003年夏季我国南方持续高温和极涡位置的关系[J].气象科学,2005,25(5):528-533.
- [16]极涡与气温长期预报课题协作组.描述极涡状态的物理量参量及其气候特征的初步分析[C].长期天气预报论文集.北京:气象出版社,1990:226-231.
- [17]张恒德,高守亭,张友姝.北极涡年代际变化及其与我国春季降水的关系[J].气候与环境研究,2006,11(5):593-604.
- [18]顾思南,杨修群.北半球绕极涡的变异及其与我国气候异常的关系[J].气象科学,2006,26(2):135-142.
- [19]张恒德,高守亭,张友姝.300 hPa北极涡年际及年代际变化特征的研究[J].高原气象,2006,25(4):583-592.
- [20]邓伟涛,孙照渤.冬季北极涛动与极涡的变化分析[J].南京气象学院学报,2006,29(5):613-619.
- [21]Jones P D,Jonsson T,Wheeler D.Extension to the North AtlanticOscillation using early instrumental pressure observations fromGibraltar and South-West Iceland[J].Int J Climatol,1997,17:1433-1450.
- [22]Bretherton C S,Smith C,Wallace J M.An intercomparison of methodsfor finding coupled patterns in climate data[J].Journal of Climate,1992,5(6):541-560.
- [23]Wallace J M,Smith C,Bretherton C S.Singular value decomposi-tion of winter-time sea surface temperature and 500 mb heightanomalies[J].Journal of Climate,1992,5(6):561-576.
- [24]刘传凤,高波.我国南方春季低温冻害气候及其大气环流特征[J].热带气象学报,2001,17(2):179-187.
- [25]Wallace J M,Gutzler D S.Teleconnections in the Geopotential HeightField during the Northern Hemisphere Winter[J].Monthly WeatherReview,1981,109:784-812.
- [26]Barnston A G,Livezey R E.Classification,seasonality and persis-tence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns[J].MonthlyWeather Review,1987,115:1083-1126.
- [27]胡跃文,杨小怡.北极涛动与北大西洋涛动的低频变化特征[J].气象科学,2007,27(3):316-322.
- [28]Hilmer M,Jung T.Evidence for a recent change in the link betweenthe North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic sea ice export[J].Geo-physical Research Letters,2000,27:989-992.
- [29]Peterson K A,Lu J,Greatbatch R.J.Evidence of nonlinear dynam-ics in the eastward shift of the NAO[J].Geophysical Research Let-ters,2003,30(2):1030,doi:10.1029/2002GL015585.
文章评论(Comment):
|
||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||