刘笑笑,王晶,徐宾铎,薛莹,任一平

• 1:中国海洋大学水产学院

摘要(Abstract)：

捕捞压力和气候变化是影响渔业资源数量变动的主要因素,会对渔获量产生较大影响。本文通过分析长时间序列的渔业统计资料和气候变化数据,研究了1962—2012年间捕捞压力和气候变化对黄渤海小黄鱼(Pseudosciaena polyactis)渔获量的影响,并应用Fox模型拟合捕捞压力对黄渤海小黄鱼渔获量的影响,同时根据多个气候因子及气候指数的年间变动数据,分析每个显著相关的气候变量对黄渤海小黄鱼渔获量的影响。研究表明,黄渤海小黄鱼渔获量在1962—1971年呈波动下降趋势,在1972—1990年保持平稳状态,在1991—2012年急剧增加。黄渤海小黄鱼渔获量与渤海冬季季风、北太平洋指数(North pacific index,NPI)呈显著负相关(P<0.05),与黄海夏季季风、黄海海表温度呈显著正相关(P<0.05)。加入气候变量进行优化的Fox模型考虑了捕捞压力和气候变化的影响,该模型拟合的渔获量与统计的渔获量呈极显著相关(P<0.01)。研究表明:捕捞压力的增大是导致黄渤海小黄鱼渔获量变动的主要原因,气候变化也会对小黄鱼渔获量产生显著影响。

关键词(KeyWords)： 黄渤海;小黄鱼渔获量;Fox模型;捕捞压力;气候变化

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 青岛海洋科学与技术国家实验室鳌山科技创新计划项目(2015ASKJ02);; 高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20120132130001);; 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(201262004,201562030)资助~~

作者(Author): 刘笑笑,王晶,徐宾铎,薛莹,任一平

DOI: 10.16441/j.cnki.hdxb.20160263

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