刘金卿,李子良

• 1:湖南省气象台
• 2:中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院

摘要(Abstract)：

本文选取最近二十年(1998—2017年)中国江南地区降水和北极海冰为研究对象,分析了年际时间尺度上中国江南地区降水异常与北极海冰异常的关系,并进一步通过研究关键区附近罗斯贝长波(Rossby长波)的波射线路径和中国中纬度地区波作用通量的传播异常,揭示了北极海冰通过Rossby波大气桥的调制作用影响江南地区降水的可能机制。结果表明:夏、秋季东西伯利亚海与巴芬湾的海冰密集度异常与次年中国江南地区降水异常存在显著的正相关关系。其影响机制是:关键海区海冰异常和北极放大能够激发Rossby波列型遥相关从北极关键区向中国中纬度地区传播,而关键区附近的Rossby波扰动能量在夏、秋季比冬、春季更容易传播至中国中纬度地区,并最终通过上下游遥相关效应引发中纬度副热带西风急流异常和急流入口区右侧江南地区的环流和降水异常,当海冰偏多时西风急流加强,江南地区对流不稳定发展,降水偏多。

关键词(KeyWords)： 中国江南地区降水;北极海冰异常;罗斯贝波;波射线;波作用通量

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2015CB953900);; 国家自然科学基金项目(41176005);; 中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2017-050)资助~~

作者(Author): 刘金卿,李子良

DOI: 10.16441/j.cnki.hdxb.20190213

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