钟贻森,翟方国

• 1:中国海洋大学

摘要(Abstract)：

基于热带降水数据,本文比较了EOF模型与多元回归模型在海表面温度(SST)拟合估计上的优劣,拟合结果显示2种模型均能很好的体现赤道东太平洋ENSO现象引起的SST显著异常,而对其他海域变化的拟合则误差较大。对比2种模型的结果,尽管降水与SST两者的第一模态主成分之间存在95%的线性相关,但是忽略高模态特别是第二模态的EOF方法的拟合逊于包含多模态的多元线性回归方法,从而表明高模态的影响大于线性假设拟合的影响。进一步通过SVD分解方法分析降水与SST各模态相关性,结果表明占约13%变化的第二模态降水与SST存在相似的空间分布,因此纳入更多模态是多元回归模型更优的主要原因。

关键词(KeyWords)： EOF;多元回归;ENSO;SST拟合;SVD

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2005CB422302)资助

作者(Author): 钟贻森,翟方国

DOI: 10.16441/j.cnki.hdxb.2009.s1.058

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