颜博琼,郑小童,王浩,韩子文,张晏铭

• 1:中国海洋大学物理海洋教育部重点实验室
• 2:中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院

摘要(Abstract)：

基于观测资料，本文研究了1900—2015年北半球不同季节影响印度洋沃克(Walker)环流年代际变化的关键海温异常和物理过程，发现在北半球冬季，热带东太平洋海温与热带北大西洋海温均对印度洋Walker环流的年代际变化有影响；在北半球夏季，印度洋Walker环流的年代际变化仅与热带北大西洋海温相关。进一步研究发现，冬季与夏季影响印度洋Walker环流年代际变化的物理机制存在差异。在冬季，太平洋Walker环流与印度洋Walker环流紧密耦合，热带东太平洋海温负异常以及热带北大西洋海温正异常会通过调制大气对流异常，进而增强太平洋Walker环流，并通过跨海盆的“齿轮”效应加强印度洋Walker环流；而在夏季，太平洋Walker环流与印度洋Walker环流的耦合关系消失，取而代之的是热带北大西洋海温正异常通过加强其上空以及北非的对流活动，激发大气开尔文(Kelvin)波而削弱印度洋Walker环流。值得注意的是，冬季和夏季热带北大西洋都对印度洋Walker环流有影响，但效应刚好相反：冬季热带北大西洋增暖有利于印度洋Walker环流的增强，而夏季热带北大西洋增暖使印度洋Walker环流减弱。本文的研究结果为气候长期变化预测提供了理论参考。

关键词(KeyWords)： 印度洋Walker环流;太平洋Walker环流;年代际变化;热带北大西洋;热带太平洋

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(41975092)资助~~

作者(Author): 颜博琼,郑小童,王浩,韩子文,张晏铭

DOI: 10.16441/j.cnki.hdxb.20230175

参考文献(References)：

• [1] Peixoto J P,Oort A H.Physics of Climate[M].New York:American Institute of Physics (AIP),1992:520.
• [2] Nicholson S E.The predictability of rainfall over the Greater Horn of Africa Part Ⅰ:Prediction of seasonal rainfall[J].Journal of Hydrometeorol,2014,15(3):1011-1027.
• [3] Hastenrath S,Polzin D,Mutai C.Circulation mechanisms of Kenya rainfall anomalies[J].Journal of Climate,2011,24(2):404-412.
• [4] Pohl B,Camberlin P.Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on East African rainfall Part Ⅰ:Intraseasonal variability and regional dependency[J].Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,2006,132(621):2521-2539.
• [5] 晏红明，严华盛，谢应齐.中国汛期降水的印度洋SSTA信号特征分析[J].热带气象学报，2001,17(2):109-116.Yan H M,Yan H S,Xie Y Q.The SSTA signal characteristic analysis over the India Ocean during rainy season in China[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2001,7(2):109-116.
• [6] Bayr T,Dommenget D,Martin T,et al.The eastward shift of the Walker circulation in response to global warming and its relationship to ENSO variability[J].Climate Dynamics,2014,43:2747-2763.
• [7] Tokinaga H,Xie S P,Deser C,et al.Slowdown of the Walker circulation driven by tropical Indo-Pacific warming[J].Nature,2012,491:439-443.
• [8] Tokinaga H,Xie S P,Timmermann A,et al.Regional patterns of tropical Indo-Pacific climate change:Evidence of the Walker circulation weakening[J].Journal of Climate,2015,25(5):1689-1710.
• [9] Luo J,Sasaki W,Masumoto Y.Indian Ocean warming modulates Pacific climate change[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2012,109(46):18701-18706.
• [10] Wu M,Zhou T,Li C,et al.A very likely weakening of Pacific Walker circulation in constrained near-future projections[J].Nature Communications,2021,12:6502.
• [11] Han W,Vialard J,McPhaden M J,et al.Indian Ocean decadal variability:A review[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2014,95(11):1679-1703.
• [12] Han W,Meehl G A,Hu A,et al.Decadal variability of the Indian and Pacific Walker cells since the 1960s:Do they covary on decadal time scales?[J].Journal of Climate,2017,30(21):8447-8468.
• [13] Deshpande A,Chowdary J S,Gnanaseelan C.Role of thermocline-SST coupling in the evolution of IOD events and their regional impacts[J].Climate Dynamics,2013,43:163-174.
• [14] 岳如画，徐海明.春季赤道印度洋纬向—垂直环流的变化特征及其与Walker环流的关系[J].大气科学，2017,41(1):213-226.Yue R H,Xu H M.Variations of the spring equatorial Indian Ocean zonal-vertical circulation and its correlation with the Walker circulation[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2017,41(1):213-226.
• [15] 吴国雄，孟文.赤道印度洋—太平洋地区海气系统的齿轮式耦合和ENSO事件Ⅰ:资料分析[J].大气科学，1998,22(4):470-480.Wu G X,Meng W.Gearing between the Indo-monsoon circulation and the Pacific Walker circulation and the ENSO Part Ⅰ:Data analyses[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,1998,22(4):470-480.
• [16] Yu B,Zwiers F W,Boer G J,et al.Structure and variances of equatorial zonal circulation in a multimodel ensemble[J].Climate Dynamics,2012,39:2403-2419.
• [17] Sun S,Fang Y,Zu Y,et al.Seasonal differences of decadal thermocline depth anomalies in the Tropical Indian Ocean[J].Journal of Climate,2022,35(12):3947-3959.
• [18] Li X,Xie S P,Gille S T,et al.Atlantic-induced pan-tropical climate change over the past three decades[J].Nature Climate Change,2015,6:275-279.
• [19] Huang B,Thorne P W,Banzon V F,et al.Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature,Version 5 (ERSSTv5):Upgrades,validations,and intercomparisons[J].Journal of Climate,2017,30(20):8179-8205.
• [20] Compo G P,Whitaker J S,Sardeshmukh P D,et al.The twentieth century reanalysis project[J].Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,2011,137(654):1-28
• [21] Henley B J,Gergis J,Karoly D J,et al.A tripole index for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation[J].Climate Dynamics,2015,45:3077-3090.
• [22] Enfield D B,Mestas-Nu■ez A M,Trimble P J.The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S.[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2001,28(10):2077-2080.
• [23] Zhao W,Khalil M.The relationship between precipitation and temperature over the contiguous United States[J].Journal of Climate,1993,6(6):1232-1236.
• [24] Pyper B J,Peterman R M.Comparison of methods to account for autocorrelation in correlation analyses of fish data[J].Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences,1998,55(9):2127-2140.
• [25] Hu S,Fedorov A V.Cross-equatorial winds control El Ni■o diversity and change[J].Nature Climate Change,2018,8:798-802.
• [26] Meehl A.The annual cycle and interannual variability in the Tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean regions[J].Monthly Weather Review,1987,115(1):27-50.

文章评论(Comment)：