刘雅,王晶,栗小东,王迎宾

• 1:浙江海洋大学水产学院

摘要(Abstract)：

三疣梭子蟹(Portunus trituberculatus)是中国东海北部海域重要的经济蟹类，对三疣梭子蟹资源开展评估是其可持续利用的基础。本文运用基于贝叶斯方法的Schaefer剩余产量模型，对东海北部海域的三疣梭子蟹资源进行评估，确定了当前三疣梭子蟹资源的开发利用状态，估算了在不同收获率水平下未来10年三疣梭子蟹的生物量和年总可捕捞量，分析了管理策略实施后三疣梭子蟹资源崩溃的风险。研究显示，在基准方案和敏感性分析方案下模型参数预测值以及生物学参考点估计值比较相近。使用两种方案估算得到的最大可持续产量(MSY)均约为24×10~4 t, MSY对应的生物量B_(MSY)均约为252×10~4 t。在基准方案下，MSY对应的捕捞死亡系数F_(MSY)为0.096;在敏感性分析方案下，MSY对应的捕捞死系数F_(MSY)为0.097。在2001—2020年间，捕捞死亡系数均低于F_(MSY),且生物量基本在B_(MSY)水平之上，表明近年来三疣梭子蟹未出现过度捕捞的情况。决策分析和风险分析表明，为使三疣梭子蟹资源可持续利用，将收获率设定在0.04左右是较合理的捕捞方案。

关键词(KeyWords)： 三疣梭子蟹;贝叶斯方法;剩余产量模型;管理策略;东海北部;渔业资源

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家重点研究发展计划项目(2019YFD0901304);; 浙江省基础公益计划项目(LGN21C190009);; 舟山市科技计划项目(2022C41003)资助~~

作者(Author): 刘雅,王晶,栗小东,王迎宾

DOI: 10.16441/j.cnki.hdxb.20220126

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