刘德辅,刘桂林,王凤清,王永发

• 1:中国海洋大学工程学院
• 2:青岛新前湾集装箱码头公司

摘要(Abstract)：

本文介绍了中国自主研发的复合极值分布理论和多维复合极值理论30多年来在国内外的引用和应用,特别是2005年Katrina和2012年Sandy飓风对新奥尔良市和新泽西州及纽约周边带来的灾难性破坏,以及2013年菲特台风诱发上海超警戒水位,都验证了1982及2006年使用上述理论预测结果的正确性。本文就该理论在海洋,海岸、港口等工程防灾设防标准中的应用,对国内外有关规范的防灾标准进行了风险评估和建议。

关键词(KeyWords)： 台风灾害;复合极值分布;多维复合极值分布;海岸和港口工程;规范校核

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目“基于多目标四层嵌套概率模式的海岸工程风险评估研究”(51379195);; 山东省自然科学基金项目“海岸工程多目标三层嵌套联合概率预测及风险评估模式研究”(ZR2013EEM034)资助~~

作者(Author): 刘德辅,刘桂林,王凤清,王永发

DOI: 10.16441/j.cnki.hdxb.20170162

参考文献(References)：

• [1]Liu D F,Pang L,Xie B T.Typhoon disaster zoning and prevention criteria—A double layer nested multi-objective probability model and its application[J].Science in China(E),2008,51(7):1038-1048.
• [2]Liu D F,Li H J,Liu G L,et al.Book Title:Natural Disasters:Prevention,Risk Factors and Management[M].USA:NOVA Science Publishers,Inc.Chapter 1:Typhoon/Hurricane/Tropical Cyclone Disasters:Prediction USA:Prevention and Mitigation,2013:1-72.
• [3]Liu D F,Ma F S.Prediction of extreme wave heights and wind velocities[J].Journal of the Waterway Port Coastal and Ocean Division,ASCE,1980,(WW4):469-479.
• [4]Liu D F,Long Term Distributions of Hurricane Characteristics[C].Huston:Proc Offshore Technology Conference,OTC4 325,1982:305-313.
• [5]Liu D F,Pang L.Joint Probability Analysis of Hurricane Katrina2005[C].Proc Intern Offshore&Polar Eng.Conf(ISOPE),USA:San Francisco,USA:2006,3:74-80.
• [6]Liu D F,Pang L,Xie B T.Typhoon Disaster in China—Prediction,Prevention and Mitigation,Natural Hazards[C].Germany:Springer-Verlag,2009,49:421-436.
• [7]Liu D F,Wang F Q,Wang Y F.Prediction of Typhoon Triggered Sea Hazards in China[C].Bremen,Germany:Proc OCEANS’09,IEEE,090204-001.2009.
• [8]刘德辅,庞亮.中国沿海台风灾害区划、防台风标准应急制定、防台风应急评估标准制定。国家防汛抗旱总指挥部委托项目(20060120)[S].北京:国家防办组织专家委员会,2008.Liu D F,Pang L.“Typhoon Disaster Prediction,Prevention and Guideline of Emergency Plan for China Sea Coasts”:China State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters 2008established project(20060120)[S].Beijing:Experts committee of National Disaster Provention Office,2008.
• [9]刘德辅,庞亮,史宏达.台风影响海区设计波浪概率预测理论、计算方法及规范条文[S].“国家行业规范”海港水文“2008修订版.北京:人民交通出版社,2013.Liu D F,Pang L,Shi H D.Design Wave Criteria for Typhoon Influenced Sea Areas:Probability Prediction Theory,Calculation Method and Design Calibrations[S].Published“China Code for Sea Port Hydrology”.Beijing:Press of People’s Transportation,2013.
• [10]Kirby W H,Moss M E.Summary of flood-frequency analysis in the United States[J].J Hydrology,1987,96:5-14.
• [11]Ochi M K.Stochastic analysis and probabilistic prediction of random seas[J].Adv Hydro-Science,1982,13:217-315.
• [12]Langley R M,El-Shaarawi A H.On the calculation of extreme wave heights:A review[J].Ocean Eng,1986,13(1):93-118.
• [13]Naffa M G,Fanos A M,Elganainy M A.Characteristics of waves off the Mediterranean Coast of Egypt[J].J Coast Res,1991,7(3):665-676.
• [14]Quek S T,Cheong H F.Prediction of extreme 3sgusts accounting for seasonal effects[J].Structure Safety,1992,11(2):121-129.
• [15]Cheong H F.Estimation of the minimum pressure coefficient due to gusts[J].Structure Safety,1995,17:1-16.
• [16]Naffaa M G.Wave climate along the Nile delta coast[J].Journal of Coastal Research,1995,11:219-229.
• [17]Bea R.Reliability assessment and management:lessons from hurricane Katrina[C].[s.1]:Proceedings of the Offshore Mech.&Arc.Eng.2007:OMAE2007-29650.
• [18]Chowdhury A G,Huang E,Erwin J.Novel full-scale windstructure interaction experimentation for mitigating hurricane induced coastal disasters[J].Far East Journal of Ocean Research,2009,2:1-27.
• [19]Liu D F,Shi H D,Liu G L.Risk Assessment for Nuclear Power Plants Against Natural Disasters:Probability Prediction and Disaster Prevention[M].USA:NOVA Science Publisher Inc.Free Charge Published,2015.
• [20]Coles S,Simiu E.Estimating uncertainty in the extreme value analysis of data generated by a hurricane simulation model[J].J of Engineering Mech.ASCE,2003,129(11):1288-1294.
• [21]Casson E,Coles S.Simulation and extremenal analysis of hurricane events[J].Appl Statist,2000,49(2):227-245.
• [22]Georgiou P N,Davenport A G,Vickery P J.Design wind speeds in regions dominated by tropical cyclones[J].Journal Wind Eng.Indu Aero.Dyn,1983(13):139-152.

文章评论(Comment)：