吴一非,贾英来,韩子清,冀蕊,张杰,谢晓敏

• 1:泉州市气象局
• 2:中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院

摘要(Abstract)：

在冬季，欧洲西岸的强降水多由大气河(Atmospheric river, AR)而引起，而大气河又受到墨西哥湾流(Gulf stream, GS)区域海洋锋面变化的调制作用，因此GS区域海洋锋面的低频变化可能对欧洲西岸强降水在次季节-季节(Sub-seasonal to seasonal, S2S)时间尺度上的预报技巧存在影响。本文基于欧洲气象中心发布的S2S预报数据集，结合ERA5的再分析数据，考察了GS区域海表面温度(Sea surface temperature, SST)、AR及欧洲西岸强降水的S2S预报效果，发现相较其他区域而言，在GS锋面处SST的预报值偏高，预报技巧偏低，受此影响，海洋锋面处海面风速预报值偏大，从而增强洋面蒸发，导致向大气输送更多的热量和水汽，促进更多AR的发生。受AR发生频率预报结果的影响，西欧沿岸南部(北部)AR发生频率预报值偏高(偏低),从而导致南部(北部)预报的强降水增多(减少),AR引起的降水占总降水的比值也增加(减少)。

关键词(KeyWords)： 湾流延伸体区域;海洋锋;强降水;大气河;欧洲西岸

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(41975065);; 泰山学者攀登计划项目资助~~

作者(Author): 吴一非,贾英来,韩子清,冀蕊,张杰,谢晓敏

DOI: 10.16441/j.cnki.hdxb.20220033

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