郑渝莹,于格,江文胜

• 1:中国海洋大学环境科学与工程学院
• 2:中国海洋大学海洋环境与生态教育部重点实验室

摘要(Abstract)：

本文以青岛市风暴潮淹没风险为例，以针对性为重点，开展城市适应策略的制定研究。首先，将未来气候变化背景下8种台风路径影响下的风暴潮淹没情况进行科学评估和量化。在此基础上，提出综合性指标“沿海岸线淹没风险危险等级”,将气候变化及其不确定性影响下的沿海岸线受风暴潮淹没影响的危险程度，以简单直观的形式表征出来。通过研究发现，对于所有情景而言，大沽河口及其附近岸线、黄岛东北端辛安南河入海口和小叉湾一带、城阳墨水河入海口处是青岛市淹没风险危险等级较高的岸线，其中大沽河口附近岸线风险值最高可达0.98,其余高风险岸线的风险值在0509、1210等影响较明显的台风下多在0.6～0.9之间；此外，为了使适应策略的提出具有针对性，并符合城市的自然地理和社会经济发展特点，本文将风险评估得到的定量化结果逐级定性化，并依据陆地淹没水深与海水淹没陆地的纵深距离进行淹没归因分类和科学分区，划分为地势低洼型淹没岸段和河流入海口溢流型淹没岸段。根据国内外海岸带城市在适应风暴潮淹没风险的先进经验，构建具有可操作性的青岛市适应建议策略集。通过该制定方法获取的建议策略集，可以将以风暴潮淹没为代表的气候变化风险逐级转化为具有针对性的适应策略，使之成为连接气候变化风险、适应气候策略和未来城市发展之间的一座桥梁。

关键词(KeyWords)： 适应气候变化;风暴潮淹没;针对性

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 青岛市科技咨询项目(20180239,20200258);; 瑞士发展合作署资助国际合作项目(INTASAVE ACCC-045)资助~~

作者(Author): 郑渝莹,于格,江文胜

DOI: 10.16441/j.cnki.hdxb.20210138

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